Xiaoyun Wu: Current Situation and Path of Transformation for the Secondary Lead Industry in Southeast Asia [Secondary Metals Forum]

At the 2025 SMM (2nd) Global Recycled Metals Industry Summit Forum - Battery Recycling Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Wu Xiaoyun, Chairman of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Lead-Acid Battery Industry Alliance, shared insights on the topic of "Current Status and Path to Transformation of the Secondary Lead Industry in Southeast Asia."

I. Overview of the Current Status of the Secondary Lead Industry in Southeast Asia

1. Current Status of the Secondary Lead Industry in Southeast Asia

1.1 Severe Imbalance in Supply and Demand

Demand Side: Demand for lead-acid batteries includes starting batteries (with an ownership exceeding 40 million units) and motorcycle power batteries (with an ownership of 250 million units), as well as demand for backup power supplies for 5G base station construction (ESS batteries).

Supply Side: The local secondary lead production capacity is severely insufficient, with Vietnam facing an annual shortfall of 150,000 mt (self-sufficiency rate of only 42%) and Indonesia facing a shortfall of 80,000 mt (self-sufficiency rate of 65%), relying on imported lead ingots to fill the gap.

Raw Material Bottleneck: Scrap lead-acid batteries are difficult to recycle across borders due to restrictions under the Basel Convention, resulting in an annual loss of approximately 600,000 mt of lead. The utilization rate of secondary lead production capacity is only 50%.

1.2 Environmental Protection and Technological Challenges

ESG compliance costs in Malaysia have increased by 30%, with small and medium-sized factories investing over $5 million annually in environmental protection. Thailand and Indonesia will ban the import of lead-containing plastic residues in 2025, exacerbating the shortage of raw materials. A high proportion of low-purity secondary lead (60% of inventory in Malaysia has a purity of <99.97%) makes it difficult to meet battery-grade standards.

1.3 Intensified Regional Competition

Chinese battery companies are planning a production capacity of 1 million mt, driving up the acquisition premium for local scrap batteries to 120% of the Chinese market price.

II. Automotive Market Data

1. Ownership and Sales

Ownership: Exceeds 40 million units (including passenger cars/commercial vehicles), dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles.

Annual Sales: Total sales in 2023 reached 3.3 million units, with an average annual growth rate of 5% expected before 2030.

Electric vehicle sales accounted for 10% in 2024 (a 50% year-on-year increase) and are expected to account for 13% in 2025 (a 41% year-on-year increase).

2. Electrification Progress

Thailand: The largest electric vehicle market, with BYD selling 13,000 units in 2024 (ranking among the top 10 in sales).

Indonesia: Aims to achieve an electric vehicle ownership of 2.2 million units by 2030, with plans for 63,000 charging stations.

Policy Objectives:

Thailand: Aims for electric vehicles to account for 50% of production by 2030.

Singapore: Aims to ban the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2040.

III. Motorcycle Market Data

1. Ownership and Sales

Ownership: The region with the highest global ownership, reaching 250 million units (with a penetration rate of approximately 40%).

Fuel-powered motorcycles: Dominated by Japanese brands (Honda holds a 72% market share in Vietnam and 77% in Thailand).

Electric motorcycles: Sales are expected to reach 4.5 million units in 2025 (with a penetration rate of 25%), with a CAGR of 13% from 2025 to 2029.

2. Barriers to electrification

Low fuel costs (oil prices in Indonesia/Thailand are approximately 3-5 yuan per liter), with consumers preferring the reliability of fuel-powered vehicles.

Insufficient charging infrastructure (the overall penetration rate of electric motorcycles in Southeast Asia remains below 5%).

4. Overview of the automotive and motorcycle markets in major Southeast Asian countries

Conclusion:

Secondary lead industry: Short-term constraints include barriers to waste battery recycling and environmental protection costs, while long-term reliance on technological upgrades (such as oxygen-enriched smelting) and regional recycling alliances to address raw material shortages.

Transport electrification: Rapid penetration of Chinese brands in the automotive sector (with a 90% market share in Thailand), while motorcycle electrification is still in its early stages (with a target of 4.5 million units by 2035), leading to a structural divergence in demand for lead-acid batteries.

II. Comparison with the scale of the secondary lead industry in China, Japan, Europe, and the United States

The following is a comprehensive comparative analysis of the scale of the secondary lead industry in Southeast Asia versus China, Japan, Europe, and the United States, based on dimensions such as capacity, technology, policies, and market position, incorporating the latest industry trends and data:

Comparison of capacity scale and technological level

1. China: Absolute scale advantage

Capacity: Annual secondary lead production exceeds 5 million mt (with total lead production of 7.564 million mt in 2023, and secondary lead accounting for approximately 65%).

Technology: Pyrometallurgy is the primary method (accounting for 90%), with a recovery rate of 99.3%.

2. Japan: Technologically advanced but with stagnant growth

The solid-phase electrolytic reduction process is widely adopted, but raw materials rely on imports (with low waste battery recycling rates), and capacity is concentrated in projects supporting battery giants.

3. Europe and the United States:

Hydrometallurgy accounts for a significant proportion (such as AquaMetals' patented technology), with environmental protection costs exceeding 30% of capacity.

Europe's secondary lead capacity is approximately 2 million mt per year, but expansion is difficult due to green regulations.

4. Southeast Asia: Capacity expansion driven by demand

Capacity gap: Vietnam has an annual shortage of 150,000 mt, and Indonesia has a shortage of 80,000 mt, with a self-sufficiency rate of less than 70%.

Local capacity: Malaysia's secondary lead inventory is only 16,000-22,000 mt (in 2023), and 60% of it is low-purity lead (<99.97%).

5. Foreign investment: China's Tianneng/Chilwee have deployed 1 million mt of battery capacity in Vietnam, driving up raw material premiums.

Future trends and regional competitiveness

1. China: Overcapacity (16 million mt of capacity vs. 7 million mt of demand), but accelerated technology exports (such as the export of oxygen-enriched smelting equipment to Southeast Asia).

2. Europe and the US: Focusing on low-carbon technologies (reducing carbon emissions by 50% through hydrometallurgy), but facing the impact of low-cost secondary lead from Asia.

3. Southeast Asia:

1) Opportunities: Increasing penetration of electric vehicles (Thailand aims for EVs to account for 50% of the market by 2030) boosting battery demand.

2) Risks: Accelerated replacement of lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries (if the penetration rate in the two-wheeler sector exceeds 30%, lead demand may collapse).

Conclusion: Regional positioning and collaboration opportunities

1) China: Dual advantages in scale and technology, but needs to overcome barriers to cross-border recycling of raw materials.

2) Europe and the US: Technological benchmarks, but cost constraints limit capacity expansion.

3) Southeast Asia: Growing demand, heavily reliant on Chinese technology input and regional recycling alliances (e.g., green corridors between China and Malaysia).

4) Global balance: In 2025, China will face a shortage of 50,000 mt of lead ingots, while overseas markets will have a surplus of 150,000 mt, enhancing the complementarity of cross-regional trade.

III. Development Trends of the Secondary Lead Industry in Southeast Asia

I. Demand Side: Driven by both Transportation Electrification and Energy Storage

1. Explosive growth in electric transportation

1) Vietnam: The world's second-largest electric motorcycle market, with annual sales growth of 30%-35%, driving an 18% annual increase in demand for lead-acid batteries.

2) Thailand: ASEAN's largest automotive base (producing 1.84 million vehicles in 2023), transitioning into an electric vehicle hub, with a target of 50% EVs by 2030, leading to a surge in demand for start-up batteries.

3) Indonesia: Motorcycle ownership stands at 130 million vehicles (more than five times the number of cars), with electric motorcycle sales expected to increase by 40% year-on-year in 2024.

2. Infrastructure and energy storage demand

1) Southeast Asia's 5G base station construction rate is increasing by 35% annually, with lead-acid backup power accounting for 70% of the new demand.

II. Supply Side: Core Bottlenecks of Raw Material Shortages and Environmental Constraints

1. Obstacles in cross-border recycling of scrap batteries

China exports lead-acid batteries containing approximately 600,000 mt of lead to Southeast Asia annually, but due to restrictions under the Basel Convention, the cross-border recycling rate of scrap batteries is less than 5%, resulting in the loss of regional raw materials and accelerated replacement of lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries (with the penetration rate in the light-vehicle sector rising to 20%), further compressing the scrap volume of lead-acid batteries.

2. Structural contradictions in domestic capacity

Low self-sufficiency rates: Vietnam has a shortfall of 150,000 mt/year (self-sufficiency rate of 42%), and Indonesia has a shortfall of 80,000 mt (self-sufficiency rate of 65%). Surplus of low-purity capacity: Malaysia has an inventory of 16,000-22,000 mt of secondary lead (as of 2023), but 60% of it has a purity level below 99.97%, making it difficult to meet battery-grade standards.

3. Rising environmental protection costs

Starting from 2025, Thailand and Indonesia will ban the import of lead-containing plastic residues, and Malaysia's ESG compliance costs will increase by 30%, with annual investments exceeding $5 million for small and medium-sized factories.

III. Industrial Transformation: Breakthroughs through Circular Economy and Technological Upgrades

1. Innovation in Regional Recycling Systems

1) Transnational Alliances: China and Malaysia jointly establish a "Green Corridor for Secondary Lead", reducing logistics costs by 40% through pilot projects and addressing the challenge of spent battery repatriation.

2) Policy Synergy: Promote the ASEAN "White List for Cross-border Transshipment of Spent Lead-acid Batteries" to break down recycling barriers.

2. Cost Reduction through Technology and Capacity Upgrades

1) Implementation of Oxygen-Enriched Smelting Technology in Thailand: Increases recovery rate to 98.5% and reduces energy consumption per ton of lead by 35%.

2) Export of Chinese Experience: Promote integrated "crushing-sorting-smelting" equipment to reduce reliance on scrap materials by 30%.

3. ESG-Oriented Capacity Restructuring

1) CIMB Bank Malaysia Offers Preferential Interest Rates for Green Secondary Lead Projects (Base Rate - 1.5%).

IV. Regional Market Differentiation and Investment Opportunities

V. Future Trends and Risk Alerts

1. Rebalancing of Supply and Demand:

2025 Forecast: Increasing regional differentiation in the global lead market (50,000 mt deficit in China vs. 150,000 mt surplus overseas), necessitating the establishment of a regional lead ingot reserve mechanism in Southeast Asia.

2. Price Volatility:SHFE lead is expected to range from 16,000 to 18,800 yuan/mt, while LME lead is expected to range from $1,900 to $2,300/mt, presenting opportunities for cross-market reverse arbitrage strategies.

3. Long-term Risks:If the penetration rate of lithium batteries in two-wheelers exceeds 30% (currently 20%), lead demand may collapse.

4. Environmental Protection:Standard Upgrades (e.g., 2025 ban on lead slag imports) will increase compliance costs.

Conclusion: Regional Collaboration and Technological Investment are Key

1. Short-term: Rely on transnational recycling alliances and policy synergy to alleviate raw material shortages, such as the China-Malaysia Green Corridor and ASEAN White List mechanism.

2. Long-term: Enhance competitiveness through technological upgrades (oxygen-enriched smelting) and ESG financing to mitigate the risk of lithium battery substitution.

3. Investment Focus: Pay attention to capacity integration opportunities in Vietnam (largest deficit), Thailand (EV policy dividends), and Malaysia (CIF premium hub).

IV. Diverse Policies on Secondary Lead Industry Across Southeast Asian Countries

Below is a comparative analysis of policies targeting the secondary lead industry in major Southeast Asian countries, based on their environmental regulations, industrial support measures, and regional synergy mechanisms:

I. Vietnam: Deficit-Driven Policies

1. Industrial Positioning:Country with the Largest Secondary Lead Deficit (150,000 mt annual deficit), prioritizing foreign investment to fill capacity gaps.

2. Core Policies:

1) Tariff Reductions: Implement tariff preferences for the import of secondary metals to reduce raw material costs.

2) Foreign Investment Incentives: Provide land and tax support for Chinese-funded battery enterprises to facilitate the establishment of a 1 million mt battery production capacity.

3) Electrification Support: Policies promote the shift from gasoline to electric vehicles, but the recycling system lags behind, relying on imported lead ingots.

3. Bottlenecks: Low recycling rate of spent batteries, insufficient local processing capacity, and inconsistent environmental protection standards.

II. Thailand: EV-Oriented Policies

1. Industrial Positioning:ASEAN's electric vehicle manufacturing center (EVs to account for 50% by 2030), with a surge in demand for secondary lead.

2. Core Policies:

1) Localization Subsidies: 30% subsidy for EV battery procurement to stimulate demand for lead-acid batteries.

2) Technology Upgrade Pilot: Introduce oxygen-enriched smelting technology (98.5% recycling rate, 35% reduction in energy consumption).

3) Environmental Protection Ban: Ban the import of lead-containing plastic residues from 2025 onwards, forcing enterprises to upgrade their processing technologies.

3. Challenges:The growth rate of secondary lead production capacity does not match the increase in EV demand, necessitating expanded technological investment.

III. Malaysia: Hub-Oriented Policies

1. Industrial Positioning:Regional lead ingot trading hub and the release location for CIF premiums.

2. Core Policies:

1) Circular Economy Tax Credits: Exempt compliant secondary lead enterprises from income tax for 5 years.

2) ESG Financing Incentives: CIMB Bank offers low-interest loans for green projects (base rate -1.5%).

3) China-Malaysia Collaboration: Establish a "Green Corridor for Secondary Lead" to reduce cross-border logistics costs by 40%.

3. Contradictions:High inventory levels, but 60% is low-purity lead (<99.97%), with insufficient high-end supply.

IV. Indonesia: Resource Control-Oriented Policies

1. Industrial Positioning:The world's largest motorcycle market (ownership of 130 million units), with significant potential for lead demand but limited recycling.

2. Core Policies:

1) Mandatory Shift from Gasoline to Electric: Restrict gasoline motorcycles, with a 40% increase in electric motorcycle sales expected by 2024.

2) Hazardous Waste Import Ban: Ban the import of lead-containing residues from 2025 onwards, exacerbating the shortage of raw materials.

3) Localization Targets: Achieve an ownership of 2.2 million electric vehicles and 63,000 supporting charging stations by 2030.

3. Challenges:Fragmented recycling networks, with a cross-border recycling rate of spent batteries below 5%.

V. Philippines: Production-Oriented Policies

1. Industrial Positioning:The largest producer of secondary lead in Southeast Asia (with an annual capacity of 100,000-150,000 mt), but with an incomplete industry chain.

2. Core Policies:

1) Tariff Exemptions: Eliminating import tariffs on electric vehicle components to reduce battery production costs.

2) Support for Recycling Technology: Government funding for the R&D of intelligent dismantling technology to enhance recycling efficiency.

3. Bottlenecks:Fragmented recycling chains, insufficient cross-regional coordination, and low capacity utilization rates.

Comparative Table of Secondary Lead Policies in Southeast Asian Countries

V. Risks to be Guarded Against for Chinese Enterprises Investing in Southeast Asia

Chinese secondary lead enterprises face a complex situation of overlapping risks when investing in Southeast Asia, necessitating the systematic construction of a risk prevention and control system. Combining the policy environment, industrial characteristics, and enterprise practices in Southeast Asia, the main risks and prevention strategies are as follows:

I. Policy Compliance Risks: Environmental Protection Upgrades and Trade Barriers

1. Stringent Environmental Protection Standards:Import Ban on Lead-Containing Hazardous Waste: Thailand and Indonesia will comprehensively ban the import of lead-containing plastic residues from 2025. Malaysia's ESG compliance costs will increase by 30%, with annual investments exceeding $5 million for small and medium-sized factories.

2. Mandatory ESG Reporting:The Philippines requires enterprises to submit ESG reports, with penalties for exceeding carbon emission limits reaching 2% of sales revenue.

3. Prevention Measures:Evaluate local environmental protection regulations before investment (e.g., Indonesia's "2045 Golden Indonesia Vision"), prioritize the deployment of green smelting technologies (e.g., oxygen-enriched smelting), and collaborate with local compliant enterprises to jointly establish processing facilities and share environmental protection costs.

4. Sudden Changes in Trade Policies:The US's "reciprocal tariff" policy has imposed tariffs exceeding 40% on Vietnam and Cambodia, weakening export competitiveness. Under the RCEP framework, 9,873 items in the Philippines enjoy zero tariffs, but must meet localization rate requirements (e.g., Indonesia's raw material localization rate must reach 30%).

5. Prevention Measures:Diversify capacity layout (e.g., tax-free zones in the Philippines + EV supporting bases in Thailand); leverage ASEAN's internal tariff preferences (e.g., the Malaysia-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement).

II. Raw Material Supply Chain Risks: Recycling Dilemmas and Lithium Battery Substitution

1. Blockage of Cross-Border Recycling of Spent Batteries: Restricted by the Basel Convention, among the 600,000 mt of lead-acid batteries exported from China to Southeast Asia annually, the recycling rate of spent batteries is below 5%.

2. Fragmented Local Recycling Networks (e.g., Indonesia's recycling rate is only 40%).

3. Preventive measures: Participate in regional recycling alliances (e.g., the "Green Channel for Recycled Lead" between China and Malaysia, which reduces logistics costs by 40%); invest in intelligent management of local recycling networks (e.g., GPS tracking of scrap battery flows).

4. Accelerated substitution of lithium batteries: The penetration rate of lithium batteries for two-wheelers in Southeast Asia increased from 5% in 2021 to 20% in 2024, while the scrap cycle of lead-acid batteries was extended by 15%.

5. Preventive measures: Dynamically adjust product mix (e.g., shifting towards ESS batteries); secure long-term supply agreements with vehicle manufacturers.

III. Market Competition and Cost Risks: Overcapacity and Operational Pressures

Cut-throat competition in China's capacity has driven up the premium for scrap battery purchases to 120% of the Chinese market level; a "chaotic battle" among enterprises has emerged.

1. Preventive measures: Differentiated competition: Focus on high-purity recycled lead (>99.97%) to avoid the low-end red ocean market;

2. Deep localization: Develop derivative businesses such as second-hand battery refurbishment services in Southeast Asia.

3. Rising operating costs: While white-collar salaries in the Philippines are one-third of those in Shanghai, bilingual management talent is scarce; inadequate infrastructure leads to high logistics costs (e.g., unstable power supply in Indonesia, traffic congestion in Vietnam).

4. Preventive measures: Establish in-house training centers to cultivate local talents; select sites close to port areas (e.g., the voyage from Subic Port in the Philippines to Shenzhen takes only 2.5 hours).

IV. Legal and Cultural Risks: Compliance Pitfalls and Localization Barriers

1. Complex legal entry requirements:

In Vietnam, joint ventures must clarify the technology valuation mechanism; otherwise, they may be suspected of false capital contributions. In Malaysia, the industry code must strictly match the MITI license.

2. Preventive measures:

During the due diligence phase, hire local law firms to verify "three-stage compliance" (entry screening → transaction structure → exit mechanism); include drag-along rights clauses in shareholders' agreements (in Malaysia) or expropriation compensation clauses (in Vietnam).

3. Cultural conflicts:

Religious customs affect production schedules (e.g., a 30% drop in capacity during Ramadan in Indonesia); employees value family time, and mandatory overtime triggers resistance.

4. Preventive measures:

Localize the management team (localization rate of middle management in Vietnamese factories >80%); adapt to local customs (e.g., double pay during Christmas in the Philippines to enhance loyalty).

Policy Comparison and Risk Focus in Major Southeast Asian Countries

VI. Comprehensive Risk Management Recommendations

1. Building supply chain resilience:

Establish a regional closed-loop system of "lead ore - recycled lead - batteries"; set up primary smelters in the Philippines (duty-free) and refine in Vietnam/Thailand (close to vehicle manufacturers).

2. Compliance-First Strategy:

Collaborate with industry associations to promote the "ASEAN White List for Cross-Border Transshipment of Waste Batteries" and overcome recycling barriers; Audit ESG indicators (carbon footprint/blood lead detection) quarterly.

3. Deepening the Technological Moat:

Introduce China's pyrometallurgical smelting technology (with a 99.3% recovery rate) to phase out low-purity capacity in Southeast Asia; Develop lithium-lead hybrid batteries to address substitution risks.

Key Conclusions:

The secondary lead industry in Southeast Asia presents both opportunities and risks. The key to success lies in "localization of technology + prioritization of compliance + regionalization of the supply chain."

In the short term, avoid tariff-sensitive projects in Vietnam. In the long term, bet on duty-free zones in the Philippines and the EV industry chain in Thailand, while hedging raw material risks through a cross-border recycling alliance.

VI. Chinese Enterprises and the Southeast Asian Market Need to Establish a Mutually Beneficial Business Model

To establish a mutually beneficial business model between Chinese battery and secondary lead enterprises and the Southeast Asian market, it is necessary to build a multi-tiered collaboration system by integrating the resource endowments, policy environments, and market demands of both sides.

1. Supply Chain Integration: Innovate a Regional Closed-Loop Cross-Border Recycling System for "Recycling-Regeneration-Manufacturing"

Solution: Replicate China's "three-tier recycling network" (centralized storage points → collection points → disposal centers) and establish regional recycling hubs in Vietnam/Thailand.

Implement a "battery trade-in + targeted recycling" model to reduce logistics costs and overcome the challenge of waste battery repatriation.

Localized Raw Material Supply:

Set up primary smelters in Indonesia/the Philippines (utilizing local ore resources) and establish refining bases in Thailand/Vietnam (close to battery plants) to form a regional closed-loop of "ore lead - secondary lead - new batteries."

2. Technological Collaboration: Export Efficient Regeneration and Battery Manufacturing Capabilities

Upgrade of Regeneration Technology: The purity of secondary lead in Southeast Asia is low. Introduce China's pyrometallurgical smelting technology or oxygen-enriched smelting.

Battery Product Adaptation:

Develop corrosion-resistant lead-acid batteries for the high-temperature and high-humidity environment in Southeast Asia; Launch cost-effective starter batteries for the electric two-wheeler market.

3. Co-building the Industry Chain: Policy Synergy and Sharing of Industrial Cluster Policy Dividends

4. Market Innovation: Dual-Brand Strategy and Financial Instruments

Dual-Brand Strategy: Technology export + localized branding, with products OEMed and sold to Europe and the United States.

Green Finance Empowerment: Access ESG financing from banks (with a 1.5% interest rate discount) or issue cross-border green bonds.

Exploring "Carbon Credit Trading": Secondary lead reduces emissions by 60% compared to primary lead, with credits sold to EU enterprises.

V. Risk Hedging: Dynamically Responding to Policy and Market Changes

Proactive Compliance: Aligning with Southeast Asia's Environmental Protection Upgrades (e.g., Thailand's 2025 ban on lead slag imports), Establishing ESG Data Centers (e.g., Philippines' mandatory carbon footprint reporting).

Hiring local compliance teams to avoid legal conflicts.

VI. Demand Fluctuation Management

Short-term: Securing orders from vehicle manufacturers;

Long-term: Deploying ESS scenarios (annual growth of 35% in demand for backup power supplies for 5G base stations in Southeast Asia).

Core Elements of a Win-Win Model: Breaking through raw material shortages through recycling networks and technology exports, constructing a "policy-resources-market" triangle.

VII. Learning from China's Experience - Rational Planning Needed for Southeast Asia's Secondary Lead Industry Development

1. Recycling System: The Core Approach to Resolving Raw Material Challenges

Replicating China's "Three-Tier Recycling Network" Model:

Grassroots Site Construction: Drawing on China's experience, establishing regional recycling hubs in Vietnam/Thailand, integrating terminals such as repair shops and 4S stores, and enabling online ordering and door-to-door recycling through digital platforms.

Professional Broker Training: Training local recycling practitioners to transition, with government-issued qualification certifications to enhance recycling stability.

Breaking Cross-Border Restrictions: Promoting ASEAN to establish a "White List for Cross-Border Transshipment of Waste Lead-Acid Batteries," drawing on China-Malaysia's "Green Channel for Secondary Lead" to reduce logistics costs and allowing targeted flow of waste batteries within the region.

2. Avoiding China's Overcapacity Trap

Total Capacity Control: Introducing a hard constraint of "regional processing capacity ≤ 150% of waste generation," strictly controlling blind expansion of secondary lead capacity.

Eliminating Inefficient Capacity: Shutting down small workshops and prioritizing support for compliant enterprises to upgrade their technologies.

3. Industry Chain Layout: Industrial Parks and Closed-Loop Systems as Key to Success

Building Circular Economy Industrial Zones; Constructing a Regional Lead Recycling Closed Loop.

4. Technological Upgrades: Transitioning from Low-End Smelting to Efficient and Green Smelting

4. Policy Regulation: Dual-Track Drivers of Capacity Replacement and Green Finance

China's experience shows that success = recycling network × technological upgrades × rational policies. If Southeast Asia replicates China's path of disorderly capacity expansion, it will face the same dilemma of 50% capacity utilization. Only by anchoring closed-loop, green, and collaborative approaches can true recycling of lead resources be achieved.

VIII. Conclusion

(1) The construction of a recycling system is closely linked to the healthy development of the secondary lead industry;

(2) The healthy development of the secondary lead industry cannot be achieved without mutual support from the industry chain;

(3) The healthy development of the secondary lead industry requires rational planning and policy support from the government;

(4) The healthy development of the secondary lead industry also requires industry self-regulation and internal norms.

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